People are always asking for my "crystal ball forecast" for stocks. And while we have generally done a good job with managing risk, I have always said that we forecast for fun and we make actual allocation decisions based on indicator evidence while avoiding "investing based on our emotions."
That said, each year we follow Ned Davis Research's Cycle Composite. This is a composite using the one-year seasonal pattern, the four-year presidential election cycle and the 10-year decennial pattern for the S&P 500. There are years when the composite has struck out, but most years have been fairly accurate. So they can sometimes provide critical alert signals.
This year's composite is featured above. One can see that it has been fairly accurate thus far. Bottom line: We will monitor closely but our Investment Committee will stick to their discipline of following our indicator evidence.
Stacey Wall serves as Chief Executive Officer at Pinnacle Trust. You can reach him by emailing him at [email protected] or by calling the office at 601-957-0323.